EU holds the line as world CO2 emissions rocket

World energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose by 4.5% last year, their fastest rate since 2000, according to first estimates by German economics institute DIW. The figures show that EU-15 emissions climbed only marginally in 2004 after increasing significantly in 2003 released.

DIW's early review of 2004 data confirms China as currently the major driver of global emissions growth. It released an extra 579m tonnes of CO2 in 2004, a year-on-year increase of 15%. In comparison, world emissions increased by 1.2bn tonnes to stand at 27.5bn tonnes, or 26% above their 1990 level.

Economics in a Full World

The global economy is now so large that society can no longer safely pretend it operates within a limitless ecosystem. Developing an economy that can be sustained within the finite biosphere requires new ways of thinking.

by Herman E Daly

Scientific American (September 2005)

Growth is widely thought to be the panacea for all the major economic ills of the modern world. Poverty? Just grow the economy (that is, increase the production of goods and services and spur consumer spending) and watch wealth trickle down. Don't try to redistribute wealth from rich to poor, because that slows growth. Unemployment? Increase demand for goods and services by lowering interest rates on loans and stimulating investment, which leads to more jobs as well as growth. Overpopulation? Just push economic growth and rely on the resulting demographic transition to reduce birth rates, as it did in the industrial nations during the 20th century. Environmental degradation? Trust in the environmental Kuznets curve, an empirical relation purporting to show that with ongoing growth in gross domestic product (GDP), pollution at first increases but then reaches a maximum and declines.

Relying on growth in this way might be fine if the global economy existed in a void, but it does not. Rather the economy is a subsystem of the finite biosphere that supports it. When the economy's expansion encroaches too much on its surrounding ecosystem, we will begin to sacrifice natural capital (such as fish, minerals and fossil fuels) that is worth more than the man-made capital (such as roads, factories and appliances) added by the growth. We will then have what I call un-economic growth, producing "bads" faster than goods - making us poorer, not richer [see box "When Growth is Bad" below]. Once we pass the optimal scale, growth becomes stupid in the short run and impossible to maintain in the long run. Evidence suggests that the US may already have entered the uneconomic growth phase [see box "Measuring Well-Being" below].

Recognizing and avoiding uneconomic growth are not easy. One problem is that some people benefit from uneconomic growth and thus have no incentive for change. In addition, our national accounts do not register the costs of growth for
all to see.

Humankind must make the transition to a sustainable economy - one that takes heed of the inherent biophysical limits of the global ecosystem so that it can continue to operate long into the future. If we do not make that transition, we may be cursed not just with uneconomic growth but with an ecological catastrophe that would sharply lower living standards.

Steady State Economics

Why is Economic Growth a Threat?
Economic growth is an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services. It entails increasing population, per capita consumption, or both.
Economic growth leaves a larger ecological fooprint, causing civil strife and bringing nations into conflict.
Can technological progress alleviate the threat of economic growth? Technological progress requires research and development,a major expenditure that entails economic growth at current levels of technology. In theory, technological progress could reduce the ecological footprint, but not when it is simply used for more economic growth.
Laws of physics, principles of ecology, and our own common sense tell us that nothing grows forever. Economic sustainability, national security, and international stability require the establishment of a steady state economy with stabilized population and per capita consumption. In a steady state economy, society focuses on goals more noble than economic growth.

Microgrids

Small networks of power generators in "microgrids" could transform the electricity network in the way that the net changed distributed communication.
That is one of the conclusions of a Southampton University project scoping out the feasibility of microgrids for power generation and distribution.
Microgrids are small community networks that supply electricity and heat.
They could make substantial savings, and emissions cuts with no major changes to lifestyles, researchers say.

Global Warming: Adapting to a New Reality

Something is amiss in Europe. Sickness-inducing algae in Genoa, severe flooding in central Europe, Portuguese wildfires, ticks carrying Lyme disease northward into Sweden – all are recent occurrences that scientists have attributed to global warming. Countries and politicians, faced with mounting evidence of the trend, are starting to consider the changes they will have to make in order to adapt to a warmer Europe. The expected consequences could be far more serious than converting Austrian ski resorts into golf courses and handing out free air conditioners to elderly Italian women. Planners of Copenhagen's new subway elevated all structures to allow for a 1.5-foot rise in sea level, which they expect to occur in the next century. One expert even warns that people in Northern or Southern Europe, where the effects of global warming will be most severe, could become "climate refugees," moving into the center of the continent.

Elisabeth Rosenthal
The International Herald Tribune, 15 September 2005

New Report Shows Climate Change Threatens Human Health

CANBERRA: Rising world temperatures could cause a significant increase in disease across Asia and Pacific Island nations, leading to conflict and leaving hundreds of millions of people displaced, a new report said yesterday.

Global warming by the year 2100 could also lead to more droughts, floods and typhoons, and increase the incidence of malaria, dengue fever and cholera, the report into the health impact of rising temperatures found.

"We're not just talking about a longer summer or a shorter ski season," AMA president Mukesh Haikerwal told reporters. "Climate change will damage our health. People will get sick as a direct result. People will die in larger numbers as our earth, our world, our home, heats up."

Internationally, higher world temperatures would increase the incidence of violent storms and droughts, and could lead to crop failures which could cause political and social upheaval.
"As stresses increase there is likely to be a shift towards authoritarian governments," the report said.

"At the worst case, large scale state failure and major conflict may generate hundreds of millions of displaced people in the Asia-Pacific region, a widespread collapse of law, and numerous abuses of human rights."

The report, titled Climate Change Health Impacts in Australia; Effects of Dramatic CO2 Emission Reductions, calls on governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions to limit the impact of global warming.
It can be downloaded from: http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/WEEN-6GFAZM

The web of life..

"Man did not weave the web of life - he is merely a strand in it.
Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself."

What to do in a failing civilization

by David M. Delaney

Can global civilization adapt successfully to degradation of the biosphere and depletion of fossil fuels? I argue that it cannot. Important elements of all constituent societies would have to be reformed. Reform would have to be radical and would be uncertain of success. It could be undertaken only in the presence of incontrovertible necessity—a necessity that will reveal itself incontrovertibly only when catastrophic collapse has become unavoidable. I conclude that those who seek to preserve civilization should plan for its survival in restricted regions.

Limits to the growth of population and economic activity are sometimes imagined to be like walls we might run into. When we get close to the walls, this simile suggests, we can slow down to avoid a crash, or at least slow down enough that the crash bends our fenders instead of smashing us to bits. A better simile reveals a greater hazard. We are like a thoughtless retired person without a pension who lives too lavishly on substantial saved capital. We consume greatly more than the income generated by our natural capital, consuming the capital as well as the income. Addicted to luxury, we increase our spending each year.

See also David M. Delaney's blog: http://davidmdelaney.blogspot.com/

Short Circuit

This book is one of those rare volumes that will change the spirit of our age. It is both practical and inspiring. Its inspiration comes from real~life success stories - accounts of communities that have taken their future into their own hands and brought back not only jobs, but real political power and community spirit. Its practical value lies in a clear analysis of the structures that support a community's economic base, and a description of the hands-on tools needed to strengthen it.

In Short Circuit, Richard Douthwaite has undertaken the most extensive survey yet of community economics in the industrialized world.

Developing Ecological Consciousness

DEVELOPING ECOLOGICAL CONSCIOUSNESS: PATHS TO A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
by Christopher Uhl - (ISBN 0-7425-3291-7)

Should we teach ecology as an academic discipline, value-neutral and devoid of emotional attachment? Biologist and author Christopher Uhl's answer is an emphatic "no." In Developing Ecological Consciousness: Paths to a Sustainable Future, he treats ecology as the integrative mother of all sciences, the understanding of which is so essential to our continued existence that it must be absorbed thoroughly as if through the pores of our skin.

Uhl's elegantly written book invites the reader to touch nature, visualize interactions, and relate ecology to personal experience. He does this through questions for reflection, such as "How do you feel knowing that there are hundreds of foreign chemicals in your body tissues?"; through practice exercises, such as sitting by a stream and coming up with 50 questions about the natural world you observe; through vignettes, such as an uncertain encounter with a panther in the Amazon; and through case studies, such as the energy and material necessary to produce a can of Coca-Cola[TM]. The net result is a book that is as much about spirituality and social systems as it is about biology and chemistry.

Facing "bad" news...

When we hear about death and destruction, it is a natural human response to want to turn away because it seems too painful to bear.
However, facing "bad" news - whether it be a personal tragedy or an environmental catastophe - is a prerequisite for healing.

(from: Developing Ecological Consciousness - Christopher Uhl, p. 123).

World Business Council for Sustainable Development - NEWS

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a coalition of 175 international companies united by a shared commitment to sustainable development via the three pillars of economic growth, ecological balance and social progress.

Our members are drawn from more than 35 countries and 20 major industrial sectors. We also benefit from a global network of 50 national and regional business councils and partner organizations involving some 1,000 business leaders globally.

The WBCSD's activities reflect our belief that the pursuit of sustainable development is good for business and business is good for sustainable development.

www.wbcsd.org/

Take a deep breath...

World Energy Footprint

PEAK OIL - imposed by Nature

Norwegian film Producer/Director Amund Prestegard is taking us right to the heart of the matterof the imminent declinein global oil production.

The film sets out to explain the PEAK OIL phenomenon, giving an approximate date for the Peak and it draws up lines of possible consequences for Mankind as well.
Featured in this film are:
Geologist Colin Campbell who acts as our main "guide". Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons. Financial risk analyst Richard Webb. Board Member at Simmons & Co., Aage Figenschou. Editor of Petroleum Review Chris Skrebowski. Geologist Olve Torvanger. US President George W. Bush and Investigative Reporter Michael C. Ruppert.

Moving From A Fossilized Economy To A Solar Economy - Dr Hermann Scheer

The modern economic age is shaped by a rapid succession of scientific and technological breakthroughs which are transforming individual and collective ways of life and economic and political structures. They exceed physical, geographical, intellectual and ethical limits (especially nuclear weapons and genetic engineering). They also exceed the limits of those time periods over which we are able to act responsibly. And yet this constantly accelerating and far-reaching modernity is a fossil construct. Measured against its claim to shape our future, it is stuck in the past, fossilized at its core, based on excavations and ancient deposits—in reality, without a future. We are living in a fossil global economy. The fundamental contradiction between a constant stream of new technological achievements driving the world economy and their lack of a future due to the current method of energy supply is supremely ironic.

Read on:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Scheer/solarSolution.htm
http://dwij.org/forum/future_link/future3scheer.html

Nature knows us - Do we know nature?

RECENTLY I WAS talking with Kay Dunbar, the founder of Ways with Words, a literary festival which takes place every year at Dartington, UK. Kay said, "In urban and industrial civilisations people are increasingy losing Eco-intelligence." The moment I heard the word 'Eco- intelligence' it rang a bell. We belong to a living Earth in an intelligent universe. Intelligence is not a human monopoly. The universe is made of intelligence and consciousness. Planet Earth is a self-organising, self-managing and self-correcting living organism. Wherever there is life there is intelligence and consciousness. Eco-intelligence means the eco-system is an intelligent system.

Humans are intelligent, but people in urban and industrial societies are mostly living in human-made, technological and artificial environments: air-conditioned homes, cars and offices hold us within a cocoon which is disconnected from the eco-system and the natural world. Young people in our schools can recognise more than fifty logos of business corporations, but if you take them into the woods, very few will be able to name ten varieties of tree - not to mention insects and other creatures. We cannot read the book of Nature. Knowledge of the natural world is mostly obtained from TV channels. People are afraid of cold, heat, rain, snow, thunder, lightning, and the roar of wild animals. This disconnection and alienation from the biosphere leads to severe intelligence deficiency. The great universities of the world are full of people who have technological and academic knowledge but are ignorant of the real world. Universities are no longer the centres of intelligence and knowledge - they have become the citadels of ignorance. They need eco-literacy and eco-intelligence.

http://www.resurgence.org/2005/kumar232.htm